A regional vendor for custom manufactured steel oil derricks, is awarded a contract to design, manufacture, and install 40 offshore oil platforms. Installation of these derricks requires precision placement and stable seas for the transport and installation ships to properly install the deep water structure. There are several schedule and cost incentives for early completion, and the project manager asks the project risk coordinator to perform an analysis, which will predict the probability of meeting the incentive dates. While researching methods that could be used for performing this analysis, the risk manager realizes that there are readily available spreadsheets within the organization. The risk manager is considering performing a Method of Moments (PERT) analysis with software already owned, or the other option is to buy a commercial risk analysis software suite that will perform Latin Hypercube Monte Carlo simulations at a cost of US$975.
What would be the best analytical option for this probability assessment?
MikeMarlo
5 months, 1 week ago